ULFA and the Changing Demographic Face of Assam

Arjun Nair
Research Intern, IPCS


The situation in Assam has once again caught the attention of the public eye
with a series of attacks and abductions, beginning in January 2007 and
intensifying in May, resulting in the deaths of over a hundred innocent
civilians and leaving hundreds more injured. Although the killing of
civilians is not a new phenomenon on Assam, it is the renewed targeting of
the Hindi speaking population that is causing worry not just to the state
government and the centre, but also to the indigenous Assamese population,
whose interests the ULFA claims to protect. Needless to say, the ULFA's
renewed focus on the migrant population is causing them to leave in droves
back to their places of origin, mostly in Bihar and Jharkhand. According the
North-East Hindi-speakers Forum, at least 100,000 Hindi-speaking migrants
have fled the state so far since the attacks in January, with the rate of
exodus quickening after the attacks in May. Why the renewed focus on migrant
workers? Why, more importantly is it worrying the native Assamese people?
And what effect do these attacks pose to the demography of the state?


The expulsion of migrants is, and always has been an issue high on ULFA's
agenda. In the December 2006 issue of the organization's mouthpiece,
Freedom, migrant workers were described as a threat to the existence of an
independent Assam and a cause of considerable damage to the social fabric of
the state. However, many believe that the renewed attacks are an attempt by
ULFA to boost its sagging approval rate, which was last polled at less than
four per cent in a public opinion poll conducted by an NGO, the Assam Public
Works, late last year. The strategy, going by the dismal approval ratings
doesn't seem to be working for the ULFA. By attacking crowded commercial
areas - allegedly to corner prized real estate - they are directly affecting
business opportunities in the state and forcing the state to call for more
security forces, whose presence is not welcome by the Assamese people.
However it is the rapidly increasing population of illegal immigrant workers
from Bangladesh that has caused tensions in the past and further threaten
ULFA's support base.


The void left behind by the fleeing Hindi-speaking population has been
quickly filled by the Bangladeshi population in the state that is
unofficially estimated to be 10 million-strong. In the article from Freedom
quoted above, the ULFA makes its priorities clear regarding illegal
immigrants. It clearly states that illegal workers from Bangladesh and Nepal
must be driven out, "but before that the illegal migrants from India must be
expelled. The main illegal foreigners in the State are the Indian rulers and
the principal illegal occupational forces are the Indian Army who also must
be driven out from the State." This is an almost complete turnaround from
ULFA's originally outright opposition to the presence of illegal migrants
from Bangladesh and is explained by senior ULFA leaders including its
commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah being granted asylum by Dhaka and their
generous donations to the major political parties such as the Awami League
and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.


The direct fallout from the attacks on Hindi-speaking migrant workers and
their leaving the state, has been the increase in fear of Islamization of
the state which began with the immigration of Bangladeshis. The 2001 Census
figures in Assam showed the increase of Muslim population from 24.56 percent
in 1971 to 30.91 percent in 2001 which gives some indication of the
importance of minority politics to the ruling parties which have done little
to prevent this vast influx of illegal migrants. This could lead to the rise
of terrorism associated with Islamic organizations operating out of
Bangladesh and could lead to a situation similar to Kashmir for the Indian
government, according to some theorists. Furthermore, Assamese believe they
are slowly losing their political franchise and are fearful of an eventual
merger with Bangladesh, which ULFA would be instrumental in bringing about,
if it continues its current policy of attacking migrant populations.


On 16 January 2007, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had assured full security
to Hindi-speaking migrants and gave a tough message to militant outfits that
there would be no compromise if they resorted to violence. However, while
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi had requested for an additional 4,000
paramilitary troops following the January attacks, the Centre's priorities
lay in allotting a similar number of troops to oversee the elections in
Uttar Pradesh in June. In order to prevent the rise of another base for
terrorist activities in the already troubled northeast, it is time the
central government mended its lax policy concerning Bangladeshi immigrants
and took firm steps to protect the Hindi-speaking migrant population whose
role in Assam's stability has been ignored.


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