Is North East in flames ?

— H N Das

The writer was Chief Secretary, Assam, during 1990-95

Insurgency in the North Eastern Region (NER) has created an atmosphere of concern and fear all over India. The Government of India (GOI) and the state governments in NER have resorted to both hard steps and soft measures to curb and ultimately control insurgency. Police, paramilitary and armed forces have been used to unleash strong action against the insurgent outfits all over NER. Quite a large number of insurgents have been killed, many more injured and others sent to jails. A novel system of surrender has been devised to lure many insurgents back to civilian life. In Assam this has been successful to a great extent. But some of the surrendered United Liberation Front of Asom (SULFA) elements have continued their extortion, gangsterism and other illegal activities through formation of syndicates and collaboration in secret killings.

The soft measures include huge amounts of funds sanctioned by GOI to the state governments of NER both under Plan and under non-Plan. Many suspect that major portions of these funds meant for the production and the social welfare sectors are not going to the poor people but are being siphoned off by the middle-men. Some amounts also go to the coffers of the insurgent outfits through devious means. Some jobs have been provided to the surrendered ultra cadres of different states in the armed and para-military forces. GOI is taking interest in improvement of the infrastructure of NER by upgrading and extending the road network, improving air connectivity and expanding railway coverage. The projects, schemes and programmes undertaken by the North East Council (NEC) and the Department of North East Region (DONER) are increasing in number. The fund allocation has also gone up.

These measures have been able to curb insurgency to some extent in all the states of NER. However, the hardcore of the ultra outfits have not been completely pacified. In Nagaland, sixty years of unrest has come to a temporary period of respite thanks to the present ceasefire agreement. But extortion has continued. In Assam talks with ULFA has broken down and sporadic instances of bomb and grenade attacks and extortion and kidnappings are continuing. Raids and encounters are resulting in deaths even of innocent civilians. But the intensity of insurgency is much lower mainly because ULFA has lost public support and economic growth has been significant.

It is true that in spite of the best efforts of the state governments to attract foreign and outside investments the success rate has not been substantial. The exodus of skilled and qualified manpower in search of jobs and investment opportunities in Pune, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai and other places has not abated. There are many reasons for this phenomenon. Continued insurgency is one of them. As already noted some terrorist activities are still going on. But the national media tend to exaggerate the incidents taking place in NER while playing down similar incidents in other states. The fear psychosis already created by the national media is such that people outside believe these news items.

A very hard and objective look is required at the present situation against the backdrop of the past events in order to describe the intensity of insurgency. In the seventees, eightees and ninetees of the last century there was insurgency everywhere – Nagaland, Mizo Hills (while it was part of Assam), Tripura, Manipur and Assam. In Assam ULFA was born in April 1979 and it was running almost a parallel government during the late eighties. That was the time when it would have been appropriate to describe the situation in NER as really grave.

Today the situation has changed. As already mentioned insurgency has abated in Tripura. In Assam and Manipur, sporadic incidents are taking place but their intensity has gone down. In Nagaland there is a ceasefire. In Mizoram there is complete peace. It would be difficult to agree that NER today is a “Frontier in Flames”.

However, that precisely is the name given to a new collection of essays by ten experts published by Viking, Penguin and edited by the eminent and internationally reputed security analyst Jaideep Saikia. At the end of the long prolegomena the editor concludes that “the flames that have engulfed the frontiers are not the results of a mere bush fire, but are flames of a fire that has the ability to set the nation’s existence ablaze.” This undoubtedly is a rather strong and ominous prediction. Such a prediction can be justified only in the context of what happened in the past and what can happen in the future. In the past insurgency had proliferated all over NER. Even though it might be dormant at the moment the factors which can make it erupt again are just below the surface. These factors have been analysed in the book by B.N.Mentschel for Manipur in his chapter on “Red Chebons and Crimson Wars”, by S.Bhowmik for Tripura in his chapter on “Taming the Twipra Tempest,” by D.Gogoi for Assam in his chapter on “Resurrection of a Sunset Dream” and by Namrata Goswami for Nagaland in her chapter on “Twilight over Guerrilla Zone”. Even the comparatively peaceful states have the potential for unrest and insurgency. Patricia Mukhim has written about Meghalaya in her chapter on “Turbulence in the Abode of Clouds” and Mamang Dai has written about Arunachal Pradesh in her chapter on “Living the Untold Myth.” Problems of infrastructure development have been dealt with by J.T. Thomas in his chapter on “Beyond the McMohan Line”, motivational mechanics of the ISI-DGFI by M.K.Dhar in his chapter on “Fulcrum of the Eastern Dark” and about the economics of NE militancy by this writer in his chapter on “Brigands of Fortune.” About illegal migration EN Rammohan’s chapter on “Lebensraum in the East” has given an excellent analysis.

This book is remarkable for the masterly analysis of the situation and for the plethora of information it has put together within its covers. It is also remarkable because the writers have fearlessly brought out the most dangerous future that awaits NER if GOI and civil society remain complacent and political parties continue to play vote bank politics, to the detriment of the country’s security concerns. This remarkable book should be able to open the eyes of our government and our civil society leaders to the dangers that lurk behind the temporary lull.

It is not intended to make a full review of this remarkable book. Nor is it intended to list out the problems and issues dealt with by the editor and the ten experts. The objective of this essay is to draw attention to the present situation in NER independently of the book. The book is alluded to for its masterly analysis of the events of the past and the portents for the future. And also because it has become imperative to heed the writings on the wall.

The ground situation shows that beside the matters referred to above there is considerable resentment among the indigenous people because of the continuous and relentless immigration of Bangladeshi Muslims that has already changed the demographic profiles of Assam and Tripura. In this context EN Rammohan’s chapter is revealing. He has clearly brought out the systematic abetment of Bangladeshi leaders, and even some Indian Muslim leaders, to the poor peasants of Bangladesh to migrate to Assam. He has emphasized that “the objective of the Muslim League to get Assam included in East Pakistan obviously continues to occupy the minds of the leaders of Bangladesh.”

What is more sinister is the fact that the main insurgent group- ULFA- has become a puppet in the hands of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). Instead of making Assam free of Bangladeshis, the objective with which ULFA started in 1979, they are now trying to make Assam free of Biharis and other Indians so that Bangladeshis can be substituted in the jobs in NER which were hitherto performed by north Indians.

Another factor which needs attention is GOI’s pumping in more and more money into NER. This has happened in the same way as it had happened earlier in Jammu and Kashmir. What proportion of it has benefited the poor? What proportion of it has meant proliferation and enrichment of the corrupt middle class? Then there is the issue of passing on of huge funds to the insurgent outfits by devious means.

It is in this backdrop that the problem of China’s doggedly demanding Arunachal Pradesh as their own territory has to be viewed. Diplomatic channels have not been able to do much to ease the situation. If NER continues to reel under the three problems of insurgency, Bangladeshi infiltration and corruption, China will find it easy to take advantage of these “fault lines” in case they make another attempt at “nudging” India as they did in 1962. Such an event will further encourage Bangladeshi infiltration. This may also turn the presently innocuous looking “Mia Land” demand into a major platform. Needless to say that ‘Mia Land’ is Muslim Land in Assam’s Muslim majority districts. These are problems which might change the situation in NER. That is why the dangerous portents are potent.

http://www.assamtribune.com/apr2708/edit2.html